Welcome to Championship Saturday! Thirteen of the remaining automatic bids left to be handed out will be won today, and there’s still lots to sort out in the less than 36 hours until Selection Sunday. While we wait to see who will punch their tickets to the Big Dance today, here’s a look at ’s latest projected NCAA tournament field, plus notes on Friday’s action and what to look out for on Saturday in the race for the last spots in the dance, the No. 1 overall seed and more.
Notes From Friday’s GamesClemson briefly entered the bubble conversation with its blowout win over NC State Thursday, but losing big to Virginia likely seals the Tigers’ fate as an NIT team. It’s tough luck for a 23-win ACC team to come up short, but Clemson’s four bad losses make it hard to make a case for them compared to other bubble teams. Arizona State’s loss to Arizona doesn’t change anything for the Sun Devils, who remain the second-to-last team in SI’s projected field. ASU will get dinged slightly by quality metrics for losing by 19, but not enough to knock them out. Calling Utah State a lock would be strong, but the Aggies will be in SI’s projected field on Selection Sunday regardless of what happens in the Mountain West title game against San Diego State. Adding a Quad 1 win against Boise is enough to make this résumé less of an outlier. They move into SI’s Last Four Byes. After wins Thursday, bubble teams Mississippi State and Rutgers each lost to top seeds in their respective conference tournaments. The Bulldogs are in better shape than the Scarlet Knights, but neither team moves much on SI’s projected seed list, with Rutgers dropping one spot into the Last Four In and Mississippi State staying among the Last Four Byes.
Bubble teams were sweating in the closing seconds of Florida Atlantic’s semifinal win at the Conference USA tournament. The Owls holding on means, for now, no bids have been stolen.Duke has quietly played outstanding basketball lately and added a Quad 1 win to their résumé by beating Miami. The Blue Devils had already moved up to the No. 5 line in SI’s projected field, but inched up a couple of spots on the overall seed list and are in a strong position for a No. 5 at this point.
The five potential No. 1 seeds keep holding serve, as Alabama handled Mississippi State, Houston knocked off East Carolina, Purdue survived against Rutgers, Kansas kept rolling against Iowa State and UCLA took down Oregon. Two main things are at play: The last No. 1 seed, which is currently a tight race between UCLA and Purdue, as well as the overall No. 1, which could theoretically go to Alabama, Houston or Kansas depending on the rest of the results. With a Big 12 tournament championship, Kansas will take that top overall spot.
Notes for Saturday’s GamesThere are some serious 2022 Texas A&M vibes with this Vanderbilt team, which beat Kentucky Friday for its 10th win in its last 11 games after starting 10–12. I’d still be somewhat surprised if the Commodores got in without winning the SEC tournament, but things do get interesting if they can knock off Texas A&M.
Every other team near the cut line on either side has already been eliminated from their conference tournament. That makes any potential bid-stealer situations the only major story line on the bubble. The big ones to watch at this point: UAB could shrink the bubble if it knocks off FAU in the C-USA championship, and Ohio State could move one win away from taking the Big Ten’s auto bid if it can upset Purdue. The bubble should also be rooting against this Vanderbilt Cinderella run from continuing into Sunday.
In the mid-major tournament championship games today, the primary thing to watch is the strength of the 12-15 seeds. For the most part, high seeds have carried the day, with strong potential Cinderellas like Oral Roberts, Charleston, Drake and Furman all winning their conference tournaments. That’s had the trickle-down effect of what currently feels like a strong No. 13 and No. 14 line, though losses by Utah Valley and Sam Houston State at the top of the WAC and UC Irvine in the Big West did take a bit of strength away. Wins by the likes of Iona, Vermont and Yale would put things back on the right track, though.
Marquette could make a fairly strong case for a No. 2 seed today if it claims the Big East tournament title against Xavier. The Golden Eagles’ win over UConn was impressive Friday and there aren’t a lot of holes in this résumé. In past years, the committee hasn’t been as reactive to conference tournament results as it works through building the seed list, but I believe Marquette deserves strong consideration.
Boise State
Mississippi State
Providence
Utah State
Last Four In
Rutgers
NC State
Arizona State
Pittsburgh
First Four Out
Oklahoma State
Nevada
Wisconsin
Vanderbilt
Next Four Out
North Carolina
Clemson
Michigan
North Texas